Irving, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

759
FXUS64 KFWD 180641
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1241 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With the arrival of the arctic cold front, much colder weather
  is expected through the upcoming week.

- Wind chills in the single digits to teens are expected each
  morning Sunday through Wednesday.

- A light accumulation of snow is expected mainly across parts of
  Central Texas late Monday night and Tuesday. Minor travel
  impacts are possible across Central Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

A shortwave trough and an attendant arctic cold front are now
making their way across North and Central Texas. Winds out ahead
of the front continue to be out of the southwest with a slight
haze in the air due to West Texas dust. Behind the front, winds
have quickly become northwesterly between 15-20 mph with a few
gusts approaching 30 mph.

Cold air advection will lead to sunrise temperatures in the 30s
for all but the Brazos Valley, where lower 40s are expected. A
slight warm-up is anticipated late tomorrow morning into the
early afternoon before a reinforcing shot of much colder air
arrives closer to sunset. Strong cold air advection will draw
temperatures into the 20s with a few teens along the Red River by
sunrise Sunday. Wind chills will largely be in the single digits
with the exception of the Brazos Valley where 10-13 degrees can be
expected. If anyone plans on heading out late tonight/early
Sunday morning, bundle up because it`s going to be cold!

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025/
/Sunday through Friday/

Sunday morning will start off very cold with wind chills in the
single digits and actual air temperatures in the upper teens and
low 20s. A 1051 mb high will be spilling out of southern Canada
into the Northern Plains during this time maintaining modest cold
advection across North Texas through the day Sunday. High
temperatures will struggle to get above freezing across our
northern counties with most areas in the mid 30s by Sunday
afternoon.  A large continental trough will be in place with
anomalously low 500 mb heights throughout much of the Midwest and
Plains. This pattern will support an extended period of hazardous
cold throughout North and Central Texas and preparations should be
made to protect exposed pipes and ensuring you have ways to stay
warm. Confidence in the cold weather forecast is near 100%.

By late Sunday, a shortwave will dig into the back side of the
CONUS trough and spread across the Four Corners region. This
trough will eventually spread across North Texas and bring a
chance for wintry precipitation to the region Monday night into
Tuesday. The main challenge with this particular trough is its
timing. A slower ejection out of the Southwest would allow better
moisture to work northward and would result in heavier snowfall
totals, while a faster transition eastward would keep the better
moisture confined to our south and result in lower snowfall
totals. Ensemble guidance has essentially been split over the last
few days, but is starting to home in on a slightly slower
solution. Analysis of moisture fields (particularly PW) which will
have an impact on actual accumulations support raising snowfall
totals just a bit in our southeast counties. While this isn`t a
significant change, confidence in accumulations of around 1" has
risen to about 40%. The thermal profile will be very cold (much
colder than our last event) so all snow is forecast at this time.
This won`t be an ice accumulation event which should
significantly reduce the impacts to travel. The cold temperatures
will also result in slightly higher snow ratios and the snow
should mainly be fluffy and dry as opposed to the heavier wet snow
we saw last week. Precipitation is expected to begin after dark
Monday evening and continue through early Tuesday morning with the
favored areas for snowfall south of I-20 and favored areas for
accumulations mainly southeast of a Lampasas to Waco to Athens
line. We`ll continue to refine any accumulation amounts through
the weekend.

Otherwise, the cold weather will likely be of more significant
impact given its duration through the upcoming week. These
temperatures will be cold enough to damage exposed pipes and
people should ensure that they have ways to stay warm through the
week. Sunday night, Monday night, and Tuesday night will all see
similar overnight lows in the teens and low 20s. Southerly winds
will return on Wednesday and a slow warmup is expected through the
end of the week, although below normal temperatures will persist.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

A cold front is now moving across the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex,
turning any remaining southwesterly winds to west/northwesterly.
A plume of dust from West Texas moved over the region prior to the
front`s arrival, however, most of this dust is moving east of the
TAF sites providing little to no impacts.

As we continue through the rest of the night, VFR skies with gusty
northwesterly winds will persist. High clouds AOA FL250 will
stream from west to east providing minimal impacts to regional TAF
sites.

Tomorrow, a reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive allowing for
the gusty northerly winds to continue. Similarly, high clouds
will continue throughout North and Central Texas. Winds are
expected to become less gusty as we approach sunset tomorrow,
however, the sustained wind speeds are still going to range
between 15-20 knots.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  46  23  36  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  50  25  38  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               38  45  21  34  17 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  45  16  35  16 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            37  45  20  35  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              39  46  24  36  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             39  47  22  36  19 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  49  25  38  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              41  52  23  40  18 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  45  19  35  16 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$